000
FXUS62 KFFC 202225
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
525 PM EST FRI NOV 20 2009

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AND WEAK SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL KEEP THE
AREA DRY TONIGHT AND EARLY SATURDAY. STRONG WAVE MOVING OFF THE
SOUTHERN ROCKIES WILL DEVELOP AN ATTENDANT SURFACE LOW ALONG THE
TEXAS GULF COAST...AND LATENT HEAT RELEASE WILL ALLOW THE LOW TO
STRENGTHEN SOMEWHAT OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO. GFS IS THE FASTEST OF
THE SHORT-TERM MODELS WITH BRINGING THE LOW EAST ALONG THE
COAST...AND ALLOWING MOISTURE TO OVERSPREAD THE SOUTHEAST. HAVE
LEANED MORE TOWARD A COMPROMISE AS THE ECMWF IS THE SLOWEST...AND IS
EVEN SLOWER ON THE LATEST 12Z RUN. IN THE MEANTIME...THE SURFACE
HIGH SLIDES EAST ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY AND WILL BEGIN RIDGING DOWN
THE EASTERN SLOPES OF THE APPALACHIANS IN A HYBRID DAMMING EVENT
BEGINNING TOMORROW. THIS WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES NOTICEABLY COOLER
SATURDAY AND ESPECIALLY SUNDAY UNDER ALL THE CLOUD COVER...AND WILL
ENHANCE THE AVAILABLE LIFT FOR THE MOISTURE FROM THE COASTAL LOW. DO
NOT EXPECT SIGNIFICANT HEAVY RAINFALL...BUT DO EXPECT WIDESPREAD
LIGHT TO OCCASIONALLY MODERATE RAINFALL BETWEEN LATE SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY...WITH BEST CHANCES SATURDAY NIGHT. OVERALL RAINFALL ANYWHERE
BETWEEN 1-2. THE LOW BEGINS TO FILL IN LATE IN THE SHORT
TERM...UNLESS YOU BELIEVE THE NAM WHICH LINGERS IT NEAR LOUISIANA.
BY THE END OF THE PERIOD THE MOISTURE BEGINS TO MOVE OUT AS THE NEXT
WAVE IN PLAINS KICKS THE COASTAL SYSTEM TOWARD THE NORTHEAST.

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...

AFOREMENTIONED WAVE COMING OFF THE ROCKIES EARLY IN THE WEEK
DEVELOPS INTO A CLOSED LOW OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS MONDAY INTO
TUESDAY. ATTENDANT FRONT NOT ESPECIALLY IMPRESSIVE...AT LEAST
INITIALLY... DUE TO LACK OF MOISTURE RETURN BEHIND THE WEEKEND
SYSTEM. GFS FASTER...SLIGHTLY DEEPER...AND FURTHER NORTHEAST WITH
THE LOW AND COLD FRONT...BRINGING THE WEAK REMNANTS OF THE FRONT
THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...WITH HARDLY MORE THAN AN INCREASE IN CLOUD
COVER INDICATED FOR OUR AREA. ECMWF HAS A VASTLY DIFFERENT
SOLUTION...ALLOWING MORE MOISTURE RETURN WITH THE SLOWER SYSTEM.
IT BRINGS WIDESPREAD MOISTURE TO THE SOUTHEAST DURING THE DAY ON
WEDNESDAY...LINGERING THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY. CONFIDENCE EXTREMELY
LOW TOWARD MIDWEEK. ABOUT THE ONLY THING BOTH MODELS ARE AGREEING
ON IS THE GENERAL TROUGHINESS THAT WILL BE OVER THE EASTERN THIRD
OF THE COUNTRY...BUT EVEN THEN THE GFS INDICATING A MUCH DEEPER
AND COLDER TROUGH. WILL LEAVE THE EXTENDED AS IS FOR NOW WITH ONLY
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS NORTH ON TUESDAY AS THE GFS WOULD INDICATE...
BUT WOULD NOT BE A BIT SURPRISED TO SEE THE ECMWF VERIFY ITS
BEEN DOING A MUCH BETTER JOB AT HANDLING THE SYSTEMS COMING
THROUGH LATELY.

TDP

.AVIATION...
VFR THROUGH THE FORECAST...EXCEPT AFTER 00Z SUN IN ATL WHEN THE RAIN
WILL BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD AND MVFR CIGS WILL ENTER THE AREA.
EXPECT HIGH CLOUDS THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING WITH MID LEVEL MOISTURE
MOVING IN DURING THE LATE MORNING/AFTERNOON. THERE IS A CHANCE OF
RAIN AFTER 21Z IN THE ATL/CSG/MCN AREAS AND WILL ADD A PROB30 TO
THOSE LOCATIONS AFTER 21Z. WINDS WILL REMAIN NORTHEAST LESS THAN 10
KTS THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          43  62  47  52  44 /   0  30  90  90  40
ATLANTA         46  61  48  54  46 /   0  40  90  70  30
BLAIRSVILLE     37  57  43  50  42 /   0  20  80  80  40
CARTERSVILLE    39  60  47  53  45 /   0  30  90  60  30
COLUMBUS        45  60  51  62  47 /   0  50  90  50  20
GAINESVILLE     44  61  46  50  44 /   0  30  90  80  40
MACON           44  64  51  62  46 /   0  40  90  70  20
ROME            39  61  47  56  45 /   0  30  80  60  40
PEACHTREE CITY  39  61  47  56  43 /   0  40  90  60  30
VIDALIA         44  66  53  63  50 /   0  20  90  80  30

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

TDP